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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1942/14249

Title: Estimating the population prevalence and force of infection directly from antibody titres
Authors: Bollaerts, K.
Aerts, M.
Shkedy, Z.
Faes, C.
Van der Stede, Y.
Beutels, P.
Hens, Niel
Issue Date: 2012
Publisher: SAGE PUBLICATIONS LTD
Citation: STATISTICAL MODELLING, 12 (5), p. 441-462
Abstract: The use of threshold values in order to diagnose individual subjects as being 'susceptible' or 'infected or recovered/immune' for a specific infection is virtually always prone to false positive, false negative or inconclusive classifications. Such misclassifications might lead to biased estimates for epidemiological parameters, such as the prevalence and the force of infection. In this article, we propose to estimate these epidemiological parameters directly from antibody titres, using an underlying mixture model. The method is applied to estimate the Salmonella serological prevalence in pigs and the age-dependent force of infection using serological data on the Varicella-Zoster virus (VZV) in humans. The threshold and direct method are compared through a simulation study.
Notes: [Bollaerts, K.] Sci Inst Publ Hlth, Brussels, Belgium. [Aerts, M.; Shkedy, Z.; Faes, C.; Hens, N.] Hasselt Univ, Interuniv Inst Biostat & Stat Bioinformat, B-3590 Diepenbeek, Belgium. [Aerts, M.; Shkedy, Z.; Faes, C.; Hens, N.] Katholieke Univ Leuven, Diepenbeek, Belgium. [Beutels, P.; Hens, N.] Univ Antwerp, Ctr Evaluat Vaccinat, Vaccine & Infect Dis Inst, Ctr Hlth Econ Res & Modeling Infect Dis, B-2020 Antwerp, Belgium. [Van der Stede, Y.] Vet & Agrochem Res Ctr, Brussels, Belgium.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/1942/14249
DOI: 10.1177/1471082X12457495
ISI #: 000308652200003
ISSN: 1471-082X
Category: A1
Type: Journal Contribution
Validation: ecoom, 2013
Appears in Collections: Centre for Statistics
Research Institute Center for Statistics

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